On May 19, 2024, citizens of the Dominican Republic went to the polls to elect their national government for the next four years. The political situation in the Dominican Republic was largely stable, with the most significant issue for candidates being the unrest and migrant crisis in Haiti. Corruption, the Constitution, and economic recovery rounded out the major policy areas that voters had to consider at the polls. Their decision was unmistakable as they easily reelected incumbent president Luis Abinader and handed his Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM, Centre) a supermajority in both chambers of the Dominican Congress.
Presidential
In the presidential election, Abinader was reelected with over 57 percent of the vote in the first round. Only two other candidates broke the double digit vote share barrier: Leonel Fernandez (FP, Centre-left) at 28.9% and Abel Martinez (PLD, Centre) with 10.4 percent. Only one minor candidate, Roque Espaillat (PED, Right) surpassed one percent of votes.
The complete breakdown is as follows:
- Abinader (PRM, Centre): 57.4%
- Fernández (FP, Centre-left): 28.9%
- Martinez (PLD, Centre): 10.4%
- Espaillat (PED, Right): 1.36%
- Peña (GenS, Conservative) 0.72%
- Rodríguez (OD, Centre-left): 0.58%
- Vargas (PRD, Centre): 0.45%
- Cabrera (FAMP, Left): 0.14%
- Severíno (PPT, Left): 0.06%
Abinader’s campaign focused strongly on Haiti and the Dominican economy. In February 2024, violence once again sparked in Haiti that worsened an already substantial migrant crisis. Over 50,000 Haitians fled the country in the first couple months of 2024, and with the Dominican Republic being Haiti’s only land border, the DR is a clear choice for those fleeing violence. Further combined with pre-existing tensions between the two countries due to a canal digging dispute, Abinader suspended visas to Haitians and closed the border. He also refused to accept fleeing Haitians into the country and campaigned on continuing that policy. While many consider these policies as “harsh,” Dominicans widely support the stability Abinaders policies brought, and that contributed to his reelection.
Further, Abinader was first elected in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic and is largely popular for how he successfully managed a weakened economy. Buoyed by high vaccination rates that reopened the economy, a focus on tourism that brought money into the country, and the integration of the private and public sector, Abinader oversaw a substantive economic recovery that far outpaced his counterparts in Latin America.
Leonel Fernandez previously served three terms as president of the Dominican Republic, winning elections in 1996, 2004, and 2008 as part of the PLD. In an attempt to win a fourth term in 2020, he lost the PLD primary election and left to form his own party, Fuerza del Pueblo (FP). He won 8.9% of the presidential vote in 2020, and improved to 28.9% this year. Fernandez is known as a reformer in the Dominican Republic, supporting many left-leaning policies. In fact, the FP was not technically a new party. After leaving the PLD, Fernandez joined the Dominican Workers’ Party, a historically communist party, and they agreed to change their name. Fernandez’ platform called for wealth redistribution and a specific focus on social justice and inequality. He maintained support from old elements of the PLD (enough to significantly decrease PLD support), but did not have much support from the young voters (18-30) who made up a quarter of the electorate. He is also perceived to be a more corrupt candidate, with half of Dominicans seeing him as more corrupt than Abinader and former president Medina.
“Martinez’ 10.4% was the worst result for a PLD candidate since 1994 and marked only the second time (2020) since 1996 that a PLD candidate did not win or force a runoff.”
Former mayor of Santiago de los Caballeros, Abel Martinez of the 21st-century dominant Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) fell into third place largely campaigning on anti-corruption and “law and order.” His plans called for the country’s first maximum-security prison, a “24/7 intelligence system” at the border, and stricter migration controls. A large chunk of his policies were notably similar to that of Abinader, and possibly contributed to his party’s historic defeat. Another contributing factor to his loss has been significant investigations into corruption within the PLD. Martinez claims these investigations were politically motivated by Abinader but has no substantive evidence to support these claims.
Congressional
The Senate and Chamber of Deputies are elected in unique ways. Senators are elected by plurality vote based on provinces, and Deputies are elected via closed-list proportional representation votes in multi-seat constituencies.
Starting in the Senate, the PRM won a 3/4ths majority with 24 seats. However, five minor parties that were endorsed by the PRM each won one seat, effectively bringing their majority to a staggering 29 out of 32 seats. The only effective opposition is the FP who won three seats.
Notably, the PLD did not win a single seat in the Senate, marking the first time they lacked representation in over three decades. The minor parties allied with the PRM are the Alliance for Progress (Centre), Liberal Reformist Party (Liberal), People’s First Party (Centre-left), Independent Revolutionary Party (Centre|Centre-right), and the Social Christian Reformist Party (Right). The PRM’s allies represent a wide range of ideologies, but the massive majority they have leaves much room for dissent on major reforms.
The Chamber of Deputies was just as dominant for the PRM, who again won a 3/4ths majority with 146 seats out of 190. The FP will also remain the main opposition party and the only other party to expand going from 3 seats after the 2020 election to 28. The PLD maintained some representation in the Chamber with 13 seats, a stark decline from their 75 seats in 2020.
The minor parties in the Chamber of Deputies include the Civic Renovation Party (Centre-left) with one seat and the Dominican Revolutionary Party (Centre) with two. Combined with PRD’s abysmal 0.45% performance in the Presidential election under Miguel Vargas, their two seats won mark the worst electoral performance for the PRD since 1974, when it did not contest the elections. Since 1974, the PRD has been one of the major parties in Dominican politics, winning five presidential elections as late as 2016, and having a congressional majority five times. Only once between 1962 and 2010 (not counting elections it did not contest) did the PRD not at least remain the largest opposition party in congress. The collapse of the PRD can be attributed to rampant corruption and a shift away from the politics it used to represent. The PRD was once classified as a center-left, populist, and social democratic party, but it has since shifted greatly to the political center, and lost much of what made it unique. Lastly, the PRD suffered from internal division, with two factions emerging after the 1982 election of Salvador Jorge Blanco as president. President Blano led an elitist faction of the PRD, while Jacobo Majluta attempted to keep the populist elements in power.
“I will ensure the promotion of a constitutional reform to prevent the continuity of power from depending on the personal whim of the sitting president. This victory will be my last, as I will honor the constitutional limits on re-election. I will not run again. This is my word, my commitment, and it will be part of my legacy.”
President Luis Abinader
Combined, Abinader’s PRM maintains a strong 3/4ths supermajority of the combined Congress, which votes together on matters of constitutional reforms. This essentially gives Abinader a blank cheque to pass whatever reforms he wants, however, he has repeatedly signaled that he does not want to steamroll Congress. He has pledged to ensure open transparency and debate, consult with the opposition, and more importantly and specifically, he has vowed to not eliminate or expand presidential term limits to allow himself to run for office again.
PARLACEN
On a simpler note, in the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) elections, the PRM expanded their 11 seats to 12, the PLD dropped from eight seats to four, and the FP has new representation winning four seats. The Social Democratic Institutional Bloc (BIS, Left) lost it’s only seat. As of writing, all three parties are a part of the Parliamentary Left Group in PARLACEN, the second largest group that represents left-leaning parties in the institution. It is worthy of note that standard left-right ideologies are not necessarily transferred into this largely deliberative body.
Looking Ahead
Luis Abinader will be busy not only over the next several weeks planning out his legislative agenda, but also over his four year term as he governs with a strong mandate from the people of the Dominican Republic. The once dominant organizations of the PLD and PRD are also in purgatory, with their paths and next steps unclear. Turnout was also historically low, with a mere 54.3% of registered voters turning out to elect their entire national government. This election is the least participated in since the introduction of full democracy in 1996. While the Organization of American States says the democratic processes are stronger than ever, it appears that voter enthusiasm is weaker than ever before.
Kian Williams 
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